IMF Fifth Review Begins in Accra — What It Means for Ghana’s Cedi at GH₵12.41/$

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission opened Ghana’s fifth programme review in Accra on September 29, a check-in that will assess fiscal targets, external buffers and the disinflation trend as the country moves toward the final stretch of its $3bn programme. The Finance Ministry confirmed it welcomed the IMF team, led by Dr. Ruben Atoyan, to commence the review.

Why this review matters for the cedi

The outcome will shape expectations for the next disbursement and broader market confidence. On the official interbank market, the Bank of Ghana quoted the dollar at GH₵12.40–12.42 (mid 12.41) on September 29; bureau quotes remain higher. A constructive review that signals continued policy discipline typically supports FX stability and lowers sovereign risk premia.

Macro backdrop: easing as inflation cools

The review follows the Bank of Ghana’s record 350-bp rate cut to 21.5% on September 17, citing a sustained fall in inflation to 11.5% in August—the lowest since October 2021. Markets are watching how quickly lending rates adjust and whether disinflation holds into Q4.

What the IMF is likely to scrutinize

• Primary balance & arrears management under the fiscal framework
• Reserves and external financing, including progress on debt operations
• Inflation dynamics post-rate cuts and pass-through to credit conditions

Big picture

In July, completion of the fourth review unlocked about $367m, bringing total disbursements near $2.3bn. Another positive staff-level outcome would reinforce stabilization gains and help anchor cedi expectations into year-end.

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Source: raylizaghana.com